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2014巴菲特致股東的信中英雙語
"Treated like a business investment, is the most intelligent." - Ben graham, "the int...
2014巴菲特致股東的信中英雙語
"Treated like a business investment, is the most intelligent." - Ben graham, "the intelligent investor"
Quoted Ben graham, as the opening of the letter is right, because I am very grateful to learned from his ideas about investing. I talk about this, behind soon even talks to common stock, but first I want to chat with you, in a long time ago I had two small stock investment. Although they are not obviously change of my net worth, but I still can bring some inspiration.
The story began from 1973 to 1981 in Nebraska, the Midwest farm prices at the time, because it is generally believed that hyperinflation is coming, and small towns bank loan policy is added fuel to the fire. Then the bubble burst, causing prices to fall by 50% or more, destroyed the leverage of farmers and their creditors. During the bubble collapse in the aftermath of Iowa and Nebraska, bank number than we recent collapse in the great depression was five times so much.
In 1986, I from the FDIC (federal deposit insurance corporation) that bought a farm of 400 acres, is located in 50 miles north of Omaha. It took me 280000, it was a higher price than a few years ago a failed bank loans granted to the farm to a lot less. I don't know how to run a farm, but there is a love of the son of farm work. I learned this from his farm can produce how many bushels of corn and soybeans, business what would be the cost. Through the forecast, I can calculate the farm was about 10% of the normal returns. I also think that productivity will be improved over time and crop prices will be more and more is also high. Later these expectations.
I don't need to have different knowledge or intelligence to come to the conclusion that the investment will not have a downward trend, but there is potential, will be essential to good trend. And, of course, may occasionally crop failure, or the price is sometimes disappointing. So what? There is always some very good year, I totally won't have any pressure to sell the asset. Now, 28 years on, the farm income tripled, the value of it is five times as much as I pay the price even more. I still do not know anything about farming, second only recently went to the field to see see.
In 1993, I made another small investment. When I was the CEO of Solomon, and Solomon's landlord larry sepher Stan told me that there is a liquidation trust company plans to sell at New York university, near a commercial real estate. Bubble blasting again, this time spread to commercial real estate, the resolution trust company dedicated to the disposal of the collapse of thrift assets, it is these institutions optimistic loan policy encourages the farce.
The analysis here is simple. Like the farm's case, the assets' current yield is about 10%. But inefficient assets are liquidated trust runs, if put some empty shop rent, its income will increase. And, more importantly, about 20% area of the largest real estate project of tenant to pay rent for about five dollars a foot, while the other tenants an average of $70. Nine years later, the cheap lease expires will certainly bring revenue growth significantly. This position is also very good assets, after all is not going to move New York university.
I joined a small group to buy the building, larry and Fred Ross was among them. Fred is a experienced senior real estate investors, he and his family will manage the assets. In recent years is also true that operates by them. As the old lease expires, income tripled, now the dividend is more than 35% of our initial investment. In addition, the original mortgage by refinancing in 1996 and 1996 respectively, this approach allows for a few special dividends, added up to more than 150% of our investment. As of today I haven't seen this asset.
Get income from the farm and the university of New York real estate, is likely to be the next few years will also increase. Though not dramatic benefits, but the two investment is reliable and satisfactory, I'll hold, and then passed on to my children and grandchildren.
I say these stories is to clarify the basis of some investment principle:
Obtain satisfactory return on investment, don't need you to become an expert. But if you're not, you must recognize their own limitations and follow a set of feasible method. Keep it simple, don't put all your eggs in one basket. When someone promised you short-term profits, you should learn to say "no".
Productivity in the future, focus on the proposed investment assets. If you have some assets as a rough estimate of future income, is uncomfortable, forget it then move on. No one can estimate the likelihood of each investment. But it is not necessary to be a the almighty; As long as you can understand it is ok to what she had done.
, if you are focused on the future price movements, plans to investment assets that you are in speculation. There is nothing wrong with this itself. But I know I can't successful speculation, and for those who promote themselves can continue successful speculators are skeptical. Half the people throw COINS for the first time to pressure on treasure; But these winners if continue to play, no one can have a profit is positive expectations. In fact, a given asset prices recently, never is a reason to buy.
, through my two little investment as you can see, I will only consider what an asset can output, and didn't care about their daily pricing. Focus on the field of talent can win the game, the winner won't be those who focus on the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturday and Sunday to watch stock and also try the working days.
, form their own macro point of view, or listen to others to forecast the macro or market, is a waste of time. In fact this is dangerous because it may blur your field of vision, let you can't see the really important facts. (when I heard the TV commentators glibly to assume the tendency of the market, I will recall the mitch vitriol emanating mentor: "you don't know how much the game is simple, until you've walked into the studio.")
My two purchase is completed in 1986 and 1986 respectively. Decided to make the investment, the state of the economy, interest rate or next year (1987 and 1994) of the securities market, it doesn't matter to me. I can't remember the time of the news headlines, or authorities said something, no matter what others say, Nebraska, has been growing corn, students will also be gathered at the university of New York.
In my two little between investment and stock investment, there is an important distinction. Is that the stock will let you know the stake real-time pricing, but I've never seen on my farm or New York real estate price.
Stock market investors have a huge advantage, that is the value of their holdings have wide fluctuations. For some investors, it is. After all, if a moody's friends, every day around my property to my shout out quotation, willing to offer to buy my farm, or to sell his farm to me, and the quotations will be according to his mental state, severe changes in the short term, I exactly how to use his this kind of irregular behavior for a profit? If his daily price is ridiculously low, and I have extra money, I would have bought his farm. If he shout out offer absurdly high, I'll sell him either, or continue to farming.
However, the holders of the shares tend to by other shareholders capricious and irrational, to oneself also is not rational. Because the market is too much noise, including economic conditions, interest rates, stock prices, and so on. Some investors believe pundits advice is very important, even worse, also think it's important to refer to their comments to invest.
Who has a farm or house can silently assets held for decades, but when they come into contact with a lot of stock quotes, and commentators are always suggested that "don't have to sit, to buy and sell!" , they often become. For the investors, the liquidity is originally can have absolute advantage, has now become a curse.
A flash crash or other extreme market volatility, the damage to investors, will not be more than a quirky and love speak neighbor farm investment hurt much come to me. In fact, falling markets for real investors, is of help, if the price is far lower than the value of time, in his hand and money available. At the time of investment, the atmosphere of fear is your friend; A happy world is your enemy.
Occur at the end of 2008, during a serious financial panic, even a severe recession is obviously formed, I have never tried to sell my farm or real estate in New York. 100% if I have a good long-term prospects, with a solid business for me, even consider to sell it a little, will be very stupid. I hold a small part of the stock is good business, why to sell? Precisely, each a small part of the last may disappoint, but as a whole, they must can do it. Does anyone really believe that the earth will engulf us amazing productive assets and unlimited creative human beings?
When Charlie munger and I buy the shares, we will take it as a part of the business, when we bought the whole business analysis and thinking content are very similar. We will begin with a judge oneself can easily estimate the, assets income in the next five years or more. If the answer is yes, and in and we estimate the bottom line corresponding to the reasonable price, we will buy the stock (or business). But, if we don't have the ability to estimate the future revenue (often encounter this situation, we will simply move on and continue to look for the next potential targets. In our work together 54 years, we never macro and political environment, or the opinions of others, instead of an attractive offer. In fact, when we make decisions, didn't even think about these factors.
But it is essential that our ability to recognize their circle border, and to stay in. Even so, we are still on stock and business has made some mistake. But when they are not a disaster, such as in a long-term rise in the market, based on the expected price behavior and desire led to the purchase.
Of course, most investors did not take commercial prospects to study as the first priority in life. If wise enough, they will know their understanding of specific business is insufficient, cannot predict their future profitability.
I give these amateurs have brought the good news: the typical investor does not need these skills. In general, American business has been doing very well, later will continue to be good, but what is certain is that there will be unpredictable hot and cold). In the 20th century, the dow Jones industrial average rose from 66 to 11497, rising dividends paid to promote the development of the market. In the 21st century, will be able to see more profit, will almost certainly have a lot of harvest. The goal of non-professionals should not be selected out of the big winners, he or his foreign aid is out of the question, but should hold all kinds of business, as part of the total together will have a very good performance. A low cost S &; P500 index funds can meet the target.
This is for amateurs say what is "investment". "When investing" is also very important. One of the most dangerous is timid or novice investors at the time of market prosperity, and then see the paper losses to wake up. (think of barton biggs recent observations, "a bull market is like sex, the feeling at the end of the best.") investors to solve this kind of mistake trading method is to accumulate shares in a long time, and never in a bad news and sell price is far lower than the peak. Follow these principles, "what all don't understand," not only do the diversification of investors, also can maintain cost minimization, it can be almost sure, can obtain satisfactory results. In fact, relative to the knowledgeable, but even couldn't see their weakness of professional investors, a can be practical and realistic in the face of their shortcomings, simple, investors may get a better long-term returns.
If the "investors" crazy buying and selling each other's farmland, yield and crop prices will increase. These ACTS only as a result, due to the farm owner advice and convert asset attributes and cause a lot of cost, make the total income will be reduced.
However, those who can benefit from advice or produce deal, have been urged to individual and institutional investors become positive. This has led to friction costs are high, for investors, overall is unrelated. So, ignore the noise, keep your cost minimization, invest in stocks as investment you are willing to farm.
I should add, my wealth is in my mouth, my suggestion here, nature and I will list some of the instructions are the same. Through a will, to achieve the goal of cash custodian to protect the interests of my wife. My Suggestions to the custodian is simple enough: 10% of the cash to buy short-term government bonds, with 90% for the purchase of a very low cost S &; P500 index fund (I suggest a pioneer fund VFINX). I believe follow these guidelines trust, most investors can be more expensive than hiring investment managers, gain better long-term returns, pension funds, institutions or individuals.
Now back to Ben graham. I bought a book written in 1949, "the intelligent investor", and through the investment to discuss in this book, learn the most of his ideas. My financial career as to buy the book changed.
Before reading a book, I was still hovering in the investment environment, in which all written materials about investing. I read most of the content is fascinated me: I tried hand drawing, use market marker to predict stock movements. I sat in the brokerage office, looking at the stock quote coil, I also hear commentators. These are interesting, but I do not tremble, because I also don't know anything.
On the contrary, this idea can use the plain text, concise and easy to understand logically to clarify (no Greek letters or complex formula). For me, the key is the latest version of the eighth chapter and the contents of chapter 20, these views led me today's investment decisions.
Several interesting tidbits about the book: the latest version includes an appendix, which describes a investment has not been mentioned, is about the fortune investment. This in 1948, when he wrote the first edition of the book made acquisitions, attention, this mysterious company is government employees insurance company Geico. If this didn't see that is still in the initial Geico qualities, my future and Berkshire will be greatly different.
1949 version also recommend this book for a railroad stock, then sell $17, earnings per share were $10. (I admire this one reason is that he have the courage to use the current example, if the wrong will let yourself be.) To some extent, low valuation is caused by the accounting standards, then does not require the railway company in the current-account surplus reflects the subsidiary of a large number of surplus.
Recommended stocks is the north Pacific company, it is the most important subsidiary of Chicago, burlington and quincy. The railway is now an important part of the burlington northern railroad, but Berkshire now completely with burlington northern railroad company. When I read the book, the north Pacific, the market value of about $40 million, now it's heirs can earn so much every four days.
I already can't remember how much was spent to buy the first edition of "the intelligent investor". Can be stressed out, no matter how much you spend on this motto: is the price you pay out, value is what you get. I have done all the investment, buy this book is the best investment (except the books which I buy marriage certificate).
像做生意一樣對待投資，是最聰明的。--本·格雷厄姆，《聰明的投資者》
引用本·格雷厄姆的話作為這封信的開場白是合適的，因為我很感激能從他那了解到關於投資的想法。我在後麵會談到本，甚至很快會談到普通股，但首先我想和你聊聊，在很久以前我曾做過的兩個小小的非股票投資。盡管它們都沒有明顯地改變我的淨值，但還是能帶來些啟發的。
這故事始於1973至1981年的內布拉斯加州，當時美國中西部的農場價格暴漲，因為大家普遍認為惡性通貨膨脹要來了，而且小鄉鎮銀行的貸款政策還火上澆油。然後泡沫爆了，導致價格下跌50%甚至更多，摧毀了那些舉債經營的農民和他們的債主。在那場泡沫餘波中倒閉的愛荷華州和內布拉斯加州的銀行，數量比我們最近這次大蕭條中倒閉的還要多五倍。
在1986年，我從FDIC(聯邦存款保險公司)那買下了一個400英畝的農場，坐落在奧馬哈北部50英裏處。這花了我28萬，此價格比前幾年一家倒閉了的銀行批給農場的貸款還要少得多。我根本不懂怎樣去經營一個農場，好在有個熱愛農活的兒子。我從他那得知這農場能生產多少蒲式耳的玉米和大豆，經營費用會是多少。通過這些預估，我計算出這農場當時大概能有10%的正常回報。我還認為生產力會隨時間而提高，農作物價格也會越來越高。後來這些預期都得到了印證。
我不需要有與眾不同的知識或智商來得出結論，這項投資不會有向下的趨勢，而是有潛在的，會實質向好的趨勢。當然了，可能偶爾會歉收，或是價格有時讓人失望。那又如何？總會有些非常好的年份嘛，我完全不會有任何壓力去賣掉這塊資產。現在，28年過去了，這農場的收入翻了三倍，它的價值已是我支付價格的五倍甚至更多。我還是對農活一無所知，最近才第二次去實地看了看。
在1993年，我做了另外一個小投資。那時我還是所羅門的CEO，所羅門的房東賴瑞·西弗史丹告訴我，有個清算信托公司打算要賣掉紐約大學鄰近的一塊商業地產。泡沫再次爆破了，這次波及到商業地產，這個清算信托公司專門用於處置那些倒閉儲蓄機構的資產，正是這些機構樂觀的貸款政策助長了這場鬧劇。
這裏的分析依舊簡單。就像那農場的例子中，該資產的無杠杆當期收益率大約為10%。但資產正被清算信托公司低效率經營著，如果把一些空置的商店出租，它的收入將會增加。更重要的是，占地產項目約20%麵積的最大租戶支付的租金大約為5美元一英尺，而其他租戶平均為70美元。9年後，這份廉價租約的到期肯定會帶來收入的顯著增長。這資產的位置也是極好的，畢竟紐約大學跑不了。
我加入了一個小團體來收購這棟樓，賴瑞和佛瑞德·羅斯也在其中。佛瑞德是個有經驗的高級房地產投資者，他和他的家族將管理這項資產。這些年也確實由他們經營著。隨著舊租約的到期，收入翻了三倍，現在的年分紅已超過我們初始投資額的35%。此外，原始抵押分別在1996年和1999年被再融資，這種手段允許進行了幾次特別分紅，加起來超過了我們投資額度的150%。我到今天為止還沒去看過這項資產。
從那農場和紐約大學房地產獲得的收入，很可能未來幾十年內還會增長。盡管收益並不具有戲劇性，但這兩項投資卻是可靠且令人滿意的，我會一輩子持有，然後傳給我的孩子和孫子。
我說這些故事是為了闡明一些投資的基礎原則：
· 獲得令人滿意的投資回報並不需要你成為一名專家。但如果你不是，你必須認清自己的局限性並遵循一套可行的方法。保持簡單，不要孤注一擲。當別人向你承諾短期的暴利，你要學會趕緊說不。
· 聚焦於擬投資資產的未來生產力。如果你對某資產的未來收入進行了粗略估算，卻又感到不安，那就忘了它繼續前進吧。沒人能估算出每一項投資的可能性。但沒必要當個全能者；你隻要能理解自己的所作所為就可以了。
· 如果你是聚焦於擬投資資產的未來價格變動，那你就是在投機。這本身沒什麽錯。但我知道我無法成功投機，並對那些宣傳自己能持續成功的投機者表示懷疑。有一半人第一次扔銅板時能壓對寶；但這些勝利者如果繼續玩下去，沒人能擁有贏利為正的期望值。事實上，一項既定資產最近的價格上漲，永遠都不會是買入的理由。
· 通過我的兩個小投資可以看出，我隻會考慮一項資產能產出什麽，而完全不關心它們的每日定價。聚焦於賽場的人才能贏得比賽，勝者不會是那些緊盯記分板的人。如果你能好好享受周六周日而不看股價，那工作日也試試吧。
· 形成自己的宏觀觀點，或是聽別人對宏觀或市場進行預測，都是在浪費時間。事實上這是危險的，因為這可能會模糊你的視野，讓你看不清真正重要的事實。(當我聽到電視評論員油嘴滑舌地對市場未來走勢進行臆想，我就回想起了米奇·曼托的尖酸評論：你都不知道這遊戲有多簡單，直到你走進那個演播廳。)
我的兩項購買分別是在1986年和1993年完成。決定進行這些投資的時候，當時的經濟狀況、利率或是下一年(1987和1994年)的證券市場走勢，對我來說都不重要。我已經記不起當時的頭條新聞，或是權威人士說了些什麽，不管別人怎麽說，內布拉斯加州的玉米一直在生長，學生也會聚集在紐約大學。
在我的兩個小投資和股票投資之間，有個重要的區別。那就是股票會讓你知道所持股份的實時定價，而我卻從沒見過對我農場或紐約房地產的報價。
證券市場的投資者有個極大的優勢，那就是他們的持股有寬幅波動的估值。對於一些投資者來說，確實如此。畢竟，如果一個穆迪的朋友，每天圍著我的財產對我喊出報價，願意以此報價來買我的農場，或將他的農場賣給我，並且這些報價會根據他的精神狀態，在短期內劇烈變化，我到底該怎樣利用他這種不規律的行為來獲利？如果他的日報價令人可笑地低，並且我有閑錢，我就會買下他的農場。如果他喊出的報價荒謬地高，我要麽就賣給他，或是繼續耕種。
然而，股票的持有者往往容易被其他持股者的反複無常和不理性所影響，搞到自己也不理性。因為市場上的噪音太多了，包括經濟狀況、利率、股票的價格等等。一些投資者認為聽權威人士的意見很重要，更糟糕的是，還認為參考他們的評論來投資很重要。
那些擁有農場或房子的人，能夠默默持有資產幾十年，但當他們接觸到大量的股票報價，加上評論員總在暗示別一直坐著，來買賣吧！，他們往往就會變得狂熱起來。對於這些投資者來說，流動性本來是可以擁有的絕對優勢，現在卻變成了一種詛咒。
一個閃電崩盤或是其他極端的市場震蕩，對投資者所造成的傷害，並不會比一個古怪且愛說話的鄰居對我農場投資的傷害來得大。事實上，下跌的市場對真正的投資者來說，是有幫助的，如果當價格遠低於價值的時候，他手裏還有錢可用的話。在投資的時候，恐懼的氛圍是你的朋友；一個歡快的世界卻是你的敵人。
在2008年底發生的，嚴重的金融恐慌期間，即使一個嚴峻衰退正在明顯地形成，我也從未想過要賣出我的農場或是紐約房地產。如果我100%擁有一項具良好長期前景的穩固生意，對我來說，哪怕是稍微考慮要拋售它，都會是非常愚蠢的。我持有的股票就是好生意的一小部分，那為什麽要賣出呢？準確的說，每一小部分或許最後會讓人失望，但作為一個整體，他們一定能做好。難道有人真的相信，地球會吞沒美國驚人的生產性資產和無限的人類創造性？
當查理·芒格和我買股票時，我們會把它當成是生意的一部分，我們的分析與買下整個生意時所思考的內容非常相似。我們一開始會判斷自己能否容易地估計出，資產未來五年或更久的收入範圍。如果答案是肯定的，並且處於與我們估算底線相對應的合理價格內，我們就會購買這股票(或生意)。但是，如果我們沒有能力估算出未來的收入(經常會遇到這種情況)，我們就會簡單地繼續前行，繼續尋找下一個潛在標的。在我們一起合作的54年裏，我們從未因宏觀或政治環境，或其他人的看法，而放棄具有吸引力的收購。事實上，當我們做決定時，這類因素想都沒想過。
但至關重要的是，我們認清了自身的能力圈邊界，並乖乖地呆在裏麵。即使這樣，我們還是在股票上和生意上都犯了些錯誤。但它們發生時都不是災難型的，例如在一個長期上升的市場中，基於預期價格行為和欲望導致了購買。
當然，大多數投資者並沒有把商業前景研究當作是生活中的首要任務。如果夠明智的話，他們會知道自己對具體生意的了解不足，並不能預測出他們未來的獲利能力。
我給這些非專業人士帶來了好消息：典型的投資者並不需要這些技巧。總的來說，美國的商業一直做得很好，以後也會繼續好下去(然而可以肯定的是，會有不可預測的忽冷忽熱出現)。在20世紀，道瓊斯工業指數從66上漲到11497，不斷上升的股利支付推動了市場的發展。21世紀，將可以看到更多的盈利，幾乎必然會有大量的收獲。非專業人士的目標不應是挑選出大牛股，他或他的外援都是辦不到的，但應該持有各種生意的一部分，總的合起來就會有很好的表現。一個低成本的S&；P500指數基金就能滿足這個目標。
這是對非專業人士說的投資是什麽。什麽時候投資也是很重要的。最危險的是膽小的或新手的投資者在市場極度繁榮的時候入場，然後看到賬麵虧損了才醒悟。(想起巴頓·比格斯最近的觀察：牛市就像性愛，在結束前的感覺最好。)投資者解決這類錯時交易的方法是，在一段長時間內積攢股份，並永遠不要在出現壞消息和股價遠低於高點時賣出。遵循這些原則，什麽都不懂的投資者不僅做到了多樣化投資，還能保持成本最小化，這幾乎就能確信，可以獲得令人滿意的結果。實際上，相對於那些知識淵博，但連自身弱點都看不清的專業投資者，一個能實事求是麵對自己短處的純樸投資者可能會獲得更好的長期回報。
如果投資者瘋狂買賣彼此的農地，產量和農作物的價格都不會增長。這些行為的唯一結果就是，由於農場擁有者尋求建議和轉換資產屬性而導致的大量的成本，會使總的收入下降。
然而，那些能從提供建議或產生交易中獲利的人，一直在催促個人和機構投資者要變得積極。這導致的摩擦成本變得很高，對於投資者來說，總體是全無好處的。所以，忽視這些噪音吧，保持你的成本最小化，投資那些股票就像投資你願意投資的農場一樣。
我該補充一下，我的財富就在我嘴裏：我在這裏提出的建議，本質上與我在遺囑裏列出的一些指令是相同的。通過一個遺囑，去實現把現金交給守護我老婆利益的托管人。我對托管人的建議再簡單不過了：把10%的現金用來買短期政府債券，把90%用於購買非常低成本的S&；P500指數基金(我建議是先鋒基金VFINX)。我相信遵循這些方針的信托，能比聘用昂貴投資經理的大多數投資者，獲得更優的長期回報，無論是養老基金、機構還是個人。
現在說回本·格雷厄姆。我在1949年買了本所著的《聰明的投資者》，並通過書中的投資探討，學到了他大部分的想法。我的金融生涯隨著買到的這本書而改變了。
在讀本的書之前，我仍在投資的環境外徘徊，鯨吞著所有關於投資的書麵資料。我閱讀的大多數內容都使我著迷：我嚐試過親手畫圖，用市場標記來預測股票走勢。我坐在經紀公司的辦公室，看著股票報價帶卷動，我還聽評論員的講解。這些都是有趣的，但我並不為之顫抖，因為我還什麽都不懂。
相反地，本的想法能用簡練易懂的平凡文字，有邏輯地去闡明(沒有希臘字母或複雜的公式)。對我來說，關鍵點就是最新版第八章和第二十章的內容，這些觀點引導著我今日的投資決策。
關於這本書的幾個有趣花絮：最新版包括了一個附錄，裏麵描述了一個未被提及的投資，是關於本的幸運投資的。本在1948年，當他寫第一版書的時候進行了收購，注意了，這個神秘的公司就是政府雇員保險公司Geico。如果本當時沒有看出還處於初創期的Geico的特質，我的未來和伯克希爾都將會大大的不同。
這本書1949年的版本還推薦了一個鐵路股，當時賣17美元，每股盈利為10美元。(我佩服本的一個原因就是他有膽量使用當前的例子，如果說錯了就會讓自己成為被嘲諷的對象。)某種程度上，低估值是由於當時的會計準則造成的，那時候並不要求鐵路公司在賬麵盈餘中體現出子公司的大量盈餘。
被推薦的股票就是北太平洋公司，它最重要的子公司是芝加哥，伯靈頓和昆西。這些鐵路現在是北伯林頓鐵路公司的重要組成部分，而伯克希爾現今完全擁有北伯林頓鐵路公司。當我讀這本書的時候，北太平洋公司的市值約為4000萬美元，現在它的繼承者每四天就能賺這麽多了。
我已記不起當時花了多少錢來買《聰明的投資者》的第一版。無論花了多少錢，都可以強調出本的格言：價格是你支付出去的，價值是你所獲得的。我做過的所有投資當中，買本的書就是最好的投資(我買的那兩本結婚證除外).
Quoted Ben graham, as the opening of the letter is right, because I am very grateful to learned from his ideas about investing. I talk about this, behind soon even talks to common stock, but first I want to chat with you, in a long time ago I had two small stock investment. Although they are not obviously change of my net worth, but I still can bring some inspiration.
The story began from 1973 to 1981 in Nebraska, the Midwest farm prices at the time, because it is generally believed that hyperinflation is coming, and small towns bank loan policy is added fuel to the fire. Then the bubble burst, causing prices to fall by 50% or more, destroyed the leverage of farmers and their creditors. During the bubble collapse in the aftermath of Iowa and Nebraska, bank number than we recent collapse in the great depression was five times so much.
In 1986, I from the FDIC (federal deposit insurance corporation) that bought a farm of 400 acres, is located in 50 miles north of Omaha. It took me 280000, it was a higher price than a few years ago a failed bank loans granted to the farm to a lot less. I don't know how to run a farm, but there is a love of the son of farm work. I learned this from his farm can produce how many bushels of corn and soybeans, business what would be the cost. Through the forecast, I can calculate the farm was about 10% of the normal returns. I also think that productivity will be improved over time and crop prices will be more and more is also high. Later these expectations.
I don't need to have different knowledge or intelligence to come to the conclusion that the investment will not have a downward trend, but there is potential, will be essential to good trend. And, of course, may occasionally crop failure, or the price is sometimes disappointing. So what? There is always some very good year, I totally won't have any pressure to sell the asset. Now, 28 years on, the farm income tripled, the value of it is five times as much as I pay the price even more. I still do not know anything about farming, second only recently went to the field to see see.
In 1993, I made another small investment. When I was the CEO of Solomon, and Solomon's landlord larry sepher Stan told me that there is a liquidation trust company plans to sell at New York university, near a commercial real estate. Bubble blasting again, this time spread to commercial real estate, the resolution trust company dedicated to the disposal of the collapse of thrift assets, it is these institutions optimistic loan policy encourages the farce.
The analysis here is simple. Like the farm's case, the assets' current yield is about 10%. But inefficient assets are liquidated trust runs, if put some empty shop rent, its income will increase. And, more importantly, about 20% area of the largest real estate project of tenant to pay rent for about five dollars a foot, while the other tenants an average of $70. Nine years later, the cheap lease expires will certainly bring revenue growth significantly. This position is also very good assets, after all is not going to move New York university.
I joined a small group to buy the building, larry and Fred Ross was among them. Fred is a experienced senior real estate investors, he and his family will manage the assets. In recent years is also true that operates by them. As the old lease expires, income tripled, now the dividend is more than 35% of our initial investment. In addition, the original mortgage by refinancing in 1996 and 1996 respectively, this approach allows for a few special dividends, added up to more than 150% of our investment. As of today I haven't seen this asset.
Get income from the farm and the university of New York real estate, is likely to be the next few years will also increase. Though not dramatic benefits, but the two investment is reliable and satisfactory, I'll hold, and then passed on to my children and grandchildren.
I say these stories is to clarify the basis of some investment principle:
Obtain satisfactory return on investment, don't need you to become an expert. But if you're not, you must recognize their own limitations and follow a set of feasible method. Keep it simple, don't put all your eggs in one basket. When someone promised you short-term profits, you should learn to say "no".
Productivity in the future, focus on the proposed investment assets. If you have some assets as a rough estimate of future income, is uncomfortable, forget it then move on. No one can estimate the likelihood of each investment. But it is not necessary to be a the almighty; As long as you can understand it is ok to what she had done.
, if you are focused on the future price movements, plans to investment assets that you are in speculation. There is nothing wrong with this itself. But I know I can't successful speculation, and for those who promote themselves can continue successful speculators are skeptical. Half the people throw COINS for the first time to pressure on treasure; But these winners if continue to play, no one can have a profit is positive expectations. In fact, a given asset prices recently, never is a reason to buy.
, through my two little investment as you can see, I will only consider what an asset can output, and didn't care about their daily pricing. Focus on the field of talent can win the game, the winner won't be those who focus on the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturday and Sunday to watch stock and also try the working days.
, form their own macro point of view, or listen to others to forecast the macro or market, is a waste of time. In fact this is dangerous because it may blur your field of vision, let you can't see the really important facts. (when I heard the TV commentators glibly to assume the tendency of the market, I will recall the mitch vitriol emanating mentor: "you don't know how much the game is simple, until you've walked into the studio.")
My two purchase is completed in 1986 and 1986 respectively. Decided to make the investment, the state of the economy, interest rate or next year (1987 and 1994) of the securities market, it doesn't matter to me. I can't remember the time of the news headlines, or authorities said something, no matter what others say, Nebraska, has been growing corn, students will also be gathered at the university of New York.
In my two little between investment and stock investment, there is an important distinction. Is that the stock will let you know the stake real-time pricing, but I've never seen on my farm or New York real estate price.
Stock market investors have a huge advantage, that is the value of their holdings have wide fluctuations. For some investors, it is. After all, if a moody's friends, every day around my property to my shout out quotation, willing to offer to buy my farm, or to sell his farm to me, and the quotations will be according to his mental state, severe changes in the short term, I exactly how to use his this kind of irregular behavior for a profit? If his daily price is ridiculously low, and I have extra money, I would have bought his farm. If he shout out offer absurdly high, I'll sell him either, or continue to farming.
However, the holders of the shares tend to by other shareholders capricious and irrational, to oneself also is not rational. Because the market is too much noise, including economic conditions, interest rates, stock prices, and so on. Some investors believe pundits advice is very important, even worse, also think it's important to refer to their comments to invest.
Who has a farm or house can silently assets held for decades, but when they come into contact with a lot of stock quotes, and commentators are always suggested that "don't have to sit, to buy and sell!" , they often become. For the investors, the liquidity is originally can have absolute advantage, has now become a curse.
A flash crash or other extreme market volatility, the damage to investors, will not be more than a quirky and love speak neighbor farm investment hurt much come to me. In fact, falling markets for real investors, is of help, if the price is far lower than the value of time, in his hand and money available. At the time of investment, the atmosphere of fear is your friend; A happy world is your enemy.
Occur at the end of 2008, during a serious financial panic, even a severe recession is obviously formed, I have never tried to sell my farm or real estate in New York. 100% if I have a good long-term prospects, with a solid business for me, even consider to sell it a little, will be very stupid. I hold a small part of the stock is good business, why to sell? Precisely, each a small part of the last may disappoint, but as a whole, they must can do it. Does anyone really believe that the earth will engulf us amazing productive assets and unlimited creative human beings?
When Charlie munger and I buy the shares, we will take it as a part of the business, when we bought the whole business analysis and thinking content are very similar. We will begin with a judge oneself can easily estimate the, assets income in the next five years or more. If the answer is yes, and in and we estimate the bottom line corresponding to the reasonable price, we will buy the stock (or business). But, if we don't have the ability to estimate the future revenue (often encounter this situation, we will simply move on and continue to look for the next potential targets. In our work together 54 years, we never macro and political environment, or the opinions of others, instead of an attractive offer. In fact, when we make decisions, didn't even think about these factors.
But it is essential that our ability to recognize their circle border, and to stay in. Even so, we are still on stock and business has made some mistake. But when they are not a disaster, such as in a long-term rise in the market, based on the expected price behavior and desire led to the purchase.
Of course, most investors did not take commercial prospects to study as the first priority in life. If wise enough, they will know their understanding of specific business is insufficient, cannot predict their future profitability.
I give these amateurs have brought the good news: the typical investor does not need these skills. In general, American business has been doing very well, later will continue to be good, but what is certain is that there will be unpredictable hot and cold). In the 20th century, the dow Jones industrial average rose from 66 to 11497, rising dividends paid to promote the development of the market. In the 21st century, will be able to see more profit, will almost certainly have a lot of harvest. The goal of non-professionals should not be selected out of the big winners, he or his foreign aid is out of the question, but should hold all kinds of business, as part of the total together will have a very good performance. A low cost S &; P500 index funds can meet the target.
This is for amateurs say what is "investment". "When investing" is also very important. One of the most dangerous is timid or novice investors at the time of market prosperity, and then see the paper losses to wake up. (think of barton biggs recent observations, "a bull market is like sex, the feeling at the end of the best.") investors to solve this kind of mistake trading method is to accumulate shares in a long time, and never in a bad news and sell price is far lower than the peak. Follow these principles, "what all don't understand," not only do the diversification of investors, also can maintain cost minimization, it can be almost sure, can obtain satisfactory results. In fact, relative to the knowledgeable, but even couldn't see their weakness of professional investors, a can be practical and realistic in the face of their shortcomings, simple, investors may get a better long-term returns.
If the "investors" crazy buying and selling each other's farmland, yield and crop prices will increase. These ACTS only as a result, due to the farm owner advice and convert asset attributes and cause a lot of cost, make the total income will be reduced.
However, those who can benefit from advice or produce deal, have been urged to individual and institutional investors become positive. This has led to friction costs are high, for investors, overall is unrelated. So, ignore the noise, keep your cost minimization, invest in stocks as investment you are willing to farm.
I should add, my wealth is in my mouth, my suggestion here, nature and I will list some of the instructions are the same. Through a will, to achieve the goal of cash custodian to protect the interests of my wife. My Suggestions to the custodian is simple enough: 10% of the cash to buy short-term government bonds, with 90% for the purchase of a very low cost S &; P500 index fund (I suggest a pioneer fund VFINX). I believe follow these guidelines trust, most investors can be more expensive than hiring investment managers, gain better long-term returns, pension funds, institutions or individuals.
Now back to Ben graham. I bought a book written in 1949, "the intelligent investor", and through the investment to discuss in this book, learn the most of his ideas. My financial career as to buy the book changed.
Before reading a book, I was still hovering in the investment environment, in which all written materials about investing. I read most of the content is fascinated me: I tried hand drawing, use market marker to predict stock movements. I sat in the brokerage office, looking at the stock quote coil, I also hear commentators. These are interesting, but I do not tremble, because I also don't know anything.
On the contrary, this idea can use the plain text, concise and easy to understand logically to clarify (no Greek letters or complex formula). For me, the key is the latest version of the eighth chapter and the contents of chapter 20, these views led me today's investment decisions.
Several interesting tidbits about the book: the latest version includes an appendix, which describes a investment has not been mentioned, is about the fortune investment. This in 1948, when he wrote the first edition of the book made acquisitions, attention, this mysterious company is government employees insurance company Geico. If this didn't see that is still in the initial Geico qualities, my future and Berkshire will be greatly different.
1949 version also recommend this book for a railroad stock, then sell $17, earnings per share were $10. (I admire this one reason is that he have the courage to use the current example, if the wrong will let yourself be.) To some extent, low valuation is caused by the accounting standards, then does not require the railway company in the current-account surplus reflects the subsidiary of a large number of surplus.
Recommended stocks is the north Pacific company, it is the most important subsidiary of Chicago, burlington and quincy. The railway is now an important part of the burlington northern railroad, but Berkshire now completely with burlington northern railroad company. When I read the book, the north Pacific, the market value of about $40 million, now it's heirs can earn so much every four days.
I already can't remember how much was spent to buy the first edition of "the intelligent investor". Can be stressed out, no matter how much you spend on this motto: is the price you pay out, value is what you get. I have done all the investment, buy this book is the best investment (except the books which I buy marriage certificate).
像做生意一樣對待投資，是最聰明的。--本·格雷厄姆，《聰明的投資者》
引用本·格雷厄姆的話作為這封信的開場白是合適的，因為我很感激能從他那了解到關於投資的想法。我在後麵會談到本，甚至很快會談到普通股，但首先我想和你聊聊，在很久以前我曾做過的兩個小小的非股票投資。盡管它們都沒有明顯地改變我的淨值，但還是能帶來些啟發的。
這故事始於1973至1981年的內布拉斯加州，當時美國中西部的農場價格暴漲，因為大家普遍認為惡性通貨膨脹要來了，而且小鄉鎮銀行的貸款政策還火上澆油。然後泡沫爆了，導致價格下跌50%甚至更多，摧毀了那些舉債經營的農民和他們的債主。在那場泡沫餘波中倒閉的愛荷華州和內布拉斯加州的銀行，數量比我們最近這次大蕭條中倒閉的還要多五倍。
在1986年，我從FDIC(聯邦存款保險公司)那買下了一個400英畝的農場，坐落在奧馬哈北部50英裏處。這花了我28萬，此價格比前幾年一家倒閉了的銀行批給農場的貸款還要少得多。我根本不懂怎樣去經營一個農場，好在有個熱愛農活的兒子。我從他那得知這農場能生產多少蒲式耳的玉米和大豆，經營費用會是多少。通過這些預估，我計算出這農場當時大概能有10%的正常回報。我還認為生產力會隨時間而提高，農作物價格也會越來越高。後來這些預期都得到了印證。
我不需要有與眾不同的知識或智商來得出結論，這項投資不會有向下的趨勢，而是有潛在的，會實質向好的趨勢。當然了，可能偶爾會歉收，或是價格有時讓人失望。那又如何？總會有些非常好的年份嘛，我完全不會有任何壓力去賣掉這塊資產。現在，28年過去了，這農場的收入翻了三倍，它的價值已是我支付價格的五倍甚至更多。我還是對農活一無所知，最近才第二次去實地看了看。
在1993年，我做了另外一個小投資。那時我還是所羅門的CEO，所羅門的房東賴瑞·西弗史丹告訴我，有個清算信托公司打算要賣掉紐約大學鄰近的一塊商業地產。泡沫再次爆破了，這次波及到商業地產，這個清算信托公司專門用於處置那些倒閉儲蓄機構的資產，正是這些機構樂觀的貸款政策助長了這場鬧劇。
這裏的分析依舊簡單。就像那農場的例子中，該資產的無杠杆當期收益率大約為10%。但資產正被清算信托公司低效率經營著，如果把一些空置的商店出租，它的收入將會增加。更重要的是，占地產項目約20%麵積的最大租戶支付的租金大約為5美元一英尺，而其他租戶平均為70美元。9年後，這份廉價租約的到期肯定會帶來收入的顯著增長。這資產的位置也是極好的，畢竟紐約大學跑不了。
我加入了一個小團體來收購這棟樓，賴瑞和佛瑞德·羅斯也在其中。佛瑞德是個有經驗的高級房地產投資者，他和他的家族將管理這項資產。這些年也確實由他們經營著。隨著舊租約的到期，收入翻了三倍，現在的年分紅已超過我們初始投資額的35%。此外，原始抵押分別在1996年和1999年被再融資，這種手段允許進行了幾次特別分紅，加起來超過了我們投資額度的150%。我到今天為止還沒去看過這項資產。
從那農場和紐約大學房地產獲得的收入，很可能未來幾十年內還會增長。盡管收益並不具有戲劇性，但這兩項投資卻是可靠且令人滿意的，我會一輩子持有，然後傳給我的孩子和孫子。
我說這些故事是為了闡明一些投資的基礎原則：
· 獲得令人滿意的投資回報並不需要你成為一名專家。但如果你不是，你必須認清自己的局限性並遵循一套可行的方法。保持簡單，不要孤注一擲。當別人向你承諾短期的暴利，你要學會趕緊說不。
· 聚焦於擬投資資產的未來生產力。如果你對某資產的未來收入進行了粗略估算，卻又感到不安，那就忘了它繼續前進吧。沒人能估算出每一項投資的可能性。但沒必要當個全能者；你隻要能理解自己的所作所為就可以了。
· 如果你是聚焦於擬投資資產的未來價格變動，那你就是在投機。這本身沒什麽錯。但我知道我無法成功投機，並對那些宣傳自己能持續成功的投機者表示懷疑。有一半人第一次扔銅板時能壓對寶；但這些勝利者如果繼續玩下去，沒人能擁有贏利為正的期望值。事實上，一項既定資產最近的價格上漲，永遠都不會是買入的理由。
· 通過我的兩個小投資可以看出，我隻會考慮一項資產能產出什麽，而完全不關心它們的每日定價。聚焦於賽場的人才能贏得比賽，勝者不會是那些緊盯記分板的人。如果你能好好享受周六周日而不看股價，那工作日也試試吧。
· 形成自己的宏觀觀點，或是聽別人對宏觀或市場進行預測，都是在浪費時間。事實上這是危險的，因為這可能會模糊你的視野，讓你看不清真正重要的事實。(當我聽到電視評論員油嘴滑舌地對市場未來走勢進行臆想，我就回想起了米奇·曼托的尖酸評論：你都不知道這遊戲有多簡單，直到你走進那個演播廳。)
我的兩項購買分別是在1986年和1993年完成。決定進行這些投資的時候，當時的經濟狀況、利率或是下一年(1987和1994年)的證券市場走勢，對我來說都不重要。我已經記不起當時的頭條新聞，或是權威人士說了些什麽，不管別人怎麽說，內布拉斯加州的玉米一直在生長，學生也會聚集在紐約大學。
在我的兩個小投資和股票投資之間，有個重要的區別。那就是股票會讓你知道所持股份的實時定價，而我卻從沒見過對我農場或紐約房地產的報價。
證券市場的投資者有個極大的優勢，那就是他們的持股有寬幅波動的估值。對於一些投資者來說，確實如此。畢竟，如果一個穆迪的朋友，每天圍著我的財產對我喊出報價，願意以此報價來買我的農場，或將他的農場賣給我，並且這些報價會根據他的精神狀態，在短期內劇烈變化，我到底該怎樣利用他這種不規律的行為來獲利？如果他的日報價令人可笑地低，並且我有閑錢，我就會買下他的農場。如果他喊出的報價荒謬地高，我要麽就賣給他，或是繼續耕種。
然而，股票的持有者往往容易被其他持股者的反複無常和不理性所影響，搞到自己也不理性。因為市場上的噪音太多了，包括經濟狀況、利率、股票的價格等等。一些投資者認為聽權威人士的意見很重要，更糟糕的是，還認為參考他們的評論來投資很重要。
那些擁有農場或房子的人，能夠默默持有資產幾十年，但當他們接觸到大量的股票報價，加上評論員總在暗示別一直坐著，來買賣吧！，他們往往就會變得狂熱起來。對於這些投資者來說，流動性本來是可以擁有的絕對優勢，現在卻變成了一種詛咒。
一個閃電崩盤或是其他極端的市場震蕩，對投資者所造成的傷害，並不會比一個古怪且愛說話的鄰居對我農場投資的傷害來得大。事實上，下跌的市場對真正的投資者來說，是有幫助的，如果當價格遠低於價值的時候，他手裏還有錢可用的話。在投資的時候，恐懼的氛圍是你的朋友；一個歡快的世界卻是你的敵人。
在2008年底發生的，嚴重的金融恐慌期間，即使一個嚴峻衰退正在明顯地形成，我也從未想過要賣出我的農場或是紐約房地產。如果我100%擁有一項具良好長期前景的穩固生意，對我來說，哪怕是稍微考慮要拋售它，都會是非常愚蠢的。我持有的股票就是好生意的一小部分，那為什麽要賣出呢？準確的說，每一小部分或許最後會讓人失望，但作為一個整體，他們一定能做好。難道有人真的相信，地球會吞沒美國驚人的生產性資產和無限的人類創造性？
當查理·芒格和我買股票時，我們會把它當成是生意的一部分，我們的分析與買下整個生意時所思考的內容非常相似。我們一開始會判斷自己能否容易地估計出，資產未來五年或更久的收入範圍。如果答案是肯定的，並且處於與我們估算底線相對應的合理價格內，我們就會購買這股票(或生意)。但是，如果我們沒有能力估算出未來的收入(經常會遇到這種情況)，我們就會簡單地繼續前行，繼續尋找下一個潛在標的。在我們一起合作的54年裏，我們從未因宏觀或政治環境，或其他人的看法，而放棄具有吸引力的收購。事實上，當我們做決定時，這類因素想都沒想過。
但至關重要的是，我們認清了自身的能力圈邊界，並乖乖地呆在裏麵。即使這樣，我們還是在股票上和生意上都犯了些錯誤。但它們發生時都不是災難型的，例如在一個長期上升的市場中，基於預期價格行為和欲望導致了購買。
當然，大多數投資者並沒有把商業前景研究當作是生活中的首要任務。如果夠明智的話，他們會知道自己對具體生意的了解不足，並不能預測出他們未來的獲利能力。
我給這些非專業人士帶來了好消息：典型的投資者並不需要這些技巧。總的來說，美國的商業一直做得很好，以後也會繼續好下去(然而可以肯定的是，會有不可預測的忽冷忽熱出現)。在20世紀，道瓊斯工業指數從66上漲到11497，不斷上升的股利支付推動了市場的發展。21世紀，將可以看到更多的盈利，幾乎必然會有大量的收獲。非專業人士的目標不應是挑選出大牛股，他或他的外援都是辦不到的，但應該持有各種生意的一部分，總的合起來就會有很好的表現。一個低成本的S&；P500指數基金就能滿足這個目標。
這是對非專業人士說的投資是什麽。什麽時候投資也是很重要的。最危險的是膽小的或新手的投資者在市場極度繁榮的時候入場，然後看到賬麵虧損了才醒悟。(想起巴頓·比格斯最近的觀察：牛市就像性愛，在結束前的感覺最好。)投資者解決這類錯時交易的方法是，在一段長時間內積攢股份，並永遠不要在出現壞消息和股價遠低於高點時賣出。遵循這些原則，什麽都不懂的投資者不僅做到了多樣化投資，還能保持成本最小化，這幾乎就能確信，可以獲得令人滿意的結果。實際上，相對於那些知識淵博，但連自身弱點都看不清的專業投資者，一個能實事求是麵對自己短處的純樸投資者可能會獲得更好的長期回報。
如果投資者瘋狂買賣彼此的農地，產量和農作物的價格都不會增長。這些行為的唯一結果就是，由於農場擁有者尋求建議和轉換資產屬性而導致的大量的成本，會使總的收入下降。
然而，那些能從提供建議或產生交易中獲利的人，一直在催促個人和機構投資者要變得積極。這導致的摩擦成本變得很高，對於投資者來說，總體是全無好處的。所以，忽視這些噪音吧，保持你的成本最小化，投資那些股票就像投資你願意投資的農場一樣。
我該補充一下，我的財富就在我嘴裏：我在這裏提出的建議，本質上與我在遺囑裏列出的一些指令是相同的。通過一個遺囑，去實現把現金交給守護我老婆利益的托管人。我對托管人的建議再簡單不過了：把10%的現金用來買短期政府債券，把90%用於購買非常低成本的S&；P500指數基金(我建議是先鋒基金VFINX)。我相信遵循這些方針的信托，能比聘用昂貴投資經理的大多數投資者，獲得更優的長期回報，無論是養老基金、機構還是個人。
現在說回本·格雷厄姆。我在1949年買了本所著的《聰明的投資者》，並通過書中的投資探討，學到了他大部分的想法。我的金融生涯隨著買到的這本書而改變了。
在讀本的書之前，我仍在投資的環境外徘徊，鯨吞著所有關於投資的書麵資料。我閱讀的大多數內容都使我著迷：我嚐試過親手畫圖，用市場標記來預測股票走勢。我坐在經紀公司的辦公室，看著股票報價帶卷動，我還聽評論員的講解。這些都是有趣的，但我並不為之顫抖，因為我還什麽都不懂。
相反地，本的想法能用簡練易懂的平凡文字，有邏輯地去闡明(沒有希臘字母或複雜的公式)。對我來說，關鍵點就是最新版第八章和第二十章的內容，這些觀點引導著我今日的投資決策。
關於這本書的幾個有趣花絮：最新版包括了一個附錄，裏麵描述了一個未被提及的投資，是關於本的幸運投資的。本在1948年，當他寫第一版書的時候進行了收購，注意了，這個神秘的公司就是政府雇員保險公司Geico。如果本當時沒有看出還處於初創期的Geico的特質，我的未來和伯克希爾都將會大大的不同。
這本書1949年的版本還推薦了一個鐵路股，當時賣17美元，每股盈利為10美元。(我佩服本的一個原因就是他有膽量使用當前的例子，如果說錯了就會讓自己成為被嘲諷的對象。)某種程度上，低估值是由於當時的會計準則造成的，那時候並不要求鐵路公司在賬麵盈餘中體現出子公司的大量盈餘。
被推薦的股票就是北太平洋公司，它最重要的子公司是芝加哥，伯靈頓和昆西。這些鐵路現在是北伯林頓鐵路公司的重要組成部分，而伯克希爾現今完全擁有北伯林頓鐵路公司。當我讀這本書的時候，北太平洋公司的市值約為4000萬美元，現在它的繼承者每四天就能賺這麽多了。
我已記不起當時花了多少錢來買《聰明的投資者》的第一版。無論花了多少錢，都可以強調出本的格言：價格是你支付出去的，價值是你所獲得的。我做過的所有投資當中，買本的書就是最好的投資(我買的那兩本結婚證除外).
